European Union customs data recorded about 567 million euros of Serbian iron and steel imports and 448 million euros of aluminium imports in 2025. The figures show trade routes but generally cannot identify final users or establish which companies ultimately bear Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism costs.
Serbia’s estimated 2026 exposure to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is 140.2 million euros, led by iron and steel. Electricity accounts for 21.8 million euros and requires a different compliance approach from metals.
EU importer-mirror data put 2025 purchases of Serbian iron and steel at 567 million euros, while a separate EU steel-safeguards regulation cited 760,234 tonnes in examined product categories. Serbia’s Ministry of Finance projects 89.1 million euros of iron-and-steel CBAM exposure in 2026 under its baseline assumptions.
Serbia’s Finance Ministry estimates CBAM-related economic exposure at approximately €140.2 million in 2026, rising to €161.4 million in 2029. Exporters need timely, verifiable emissions data to support EU buyers’ reporting and commercial decisions.
Germany and Slovenia were the largest directly recorded EU markets for Serbian aluminium in 2025. The EU carbon-border regime is making verified product-level emissions data increasingly important in supplier specifications and price negotiations.
Serbia’s Finance Ministry estimated potential 2026 exposure of 140.2 million euros under the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. EU importers hold the legal reporting and certificate obligations, but contract terms could pass costs to Serbian suppliers and consumers.
Western Balkan electricity exporters face difficulties proving the emissions and generating origin of power sold into the EU when it crosses multiple grids. EU mirror statistics show gross electricity imports reported from Serbia of 9.84 TWh in 2025, while Serbia’s Ministry of Finance estimated electricity-related exposure of around 21.8 million euros for 2026.
Poland, Czechia and Hungary were the leading direct EU markets for Serbian iron and steel in 2025, while Germany, Slovenia and France led imports of Serbian aluminium. The rankings differ from the EU’s largest overall markets for goods covered by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
EU member states imported €1,150.3 million of electricity from Serbia in 2025, while three flat-steel product families accounted for more than €500 million. The trade values can help businesses prioritise CBAM data checks, but broad HS codes do not establish which goods are covered or what emissions charges are due.
Hungary and Romania accounted for nearly 7 TWh of the 9.845 TWh of gross electricity imports attributed to Serbia by EU customs statistics in 2025. The totals do not identify which Serbian generating installations produced the electricity for EU carbon accounting.
