Serbia’s Finance Ministry estimates the country’s economic exposure to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at approximately €140.2 million in 2026, as industrial exporters face growing demands to document emissions alongside meeting price and delivery terms. The estimate is a projection, not recorded tax receipts or invoices sent to Serbian companies, but CBAM-related costs can affect contracts with EU customers.
CBAM applies to specified categories of goods imported into the European Union. In 2025, imports matching the relevant carbon-border customs codes were valued at €111.23 billion. That figure measures the border value of goods, not the value of carbon certificates owed, and includes imports from exempt source countries. After those origins are excluded, about €94.74 billion of trade remains potentially relevant before product-level, importer-level and emissions tests.
Iron and steel accounted for €60.95 billion of the EU’s 2025 imports covered by the codes, while aluminium represented €30.34 billion. Serbia is not a leading origin in the aggregate, but its trade is concentrated in corridors linking Serbian producers and traders to several EU border and manufacturing markets. Its immediate exposure is narrower, covering metals, electricity and other eligible products shipped from Serbian producers and traders.
The Finance Ministry calculates that more than 12% of Serbia’s exports to the EU fall within CBAM’s scope. Around 1,000 companies exported to the EU in 2025 and could be directly affected, while more than 3,500 Serbian businesses are linked directly or indirectly to covered sectors. Those industries account for around 4.5% of employment in Serbia, extending the compliance issue beyond a small number of large producers.
Emissions data shape contract negotiations
Under the ministry’s baseline scenario, estimated exposure rises to €161.4 million in 2029. The 2026 estimate comprises €89.1 million for steel and iron, €19.5 million for aluminium and €21.8 million for electricity. The calculations assume a fixed 2025 trade structure, default emissions assumptions and a reference certificate price of €75.36.
EU importers and authorised CBAM declarants have the formal reporting and certificate obligations. Related commercial costs could be passed back to Serbian mills through discounts or contract clauses, or forward to processors, construction suppliers and manufacturers. Negotiations will depend on whether Serbian plants can document emissions below regulatory defaults, how much free-allocation relief remains, and whether importers can source lower-carbon goods elsewhere.
EU buyers must submit their first annual declaration for imports made in 2026 and surrender the associated certificates by 30 September 2027. Serbian suppliers need to provide product classifications, installation-level production data and emissions evidence early enough for importers to price and contract shipments and complete verification work.
Plants that cannot provide the required information risk losing business even if their actual carbon performance might be competitive. A lower-carbon production route is commercially useful only if its emissions can be demonstrated, attributed to the correct shipment and accepted in the EU importer’s declaration process. For Serbian exporters, the immediate commercial test is whether individual steel, metalworking and power businesses can retain their EU customers.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer