Serbia’s estimated exposure to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is 140.2 million euros in the Ministry of Finance’s 2026 baseline assessment, led by iron and steel. Electricity accounts for a further 21.8 million euros and follows different compliance rules, giving Serbia a different exposure mix from the EU’s overall CBAM-coded imports.
Steel and aluminium were the dominant commercial categories in the EU’s 2025 imports of CBAM-coded goods. Steel imports were valued at 60.95 billion euros and aluminium at 30.34 billion euros, out of a total 111.23 billion euros. Together, the metals accounted for 91.29 billion euros, or about 82.1% of the total.
That 82.1% is a market-weighted share of imports from all non-EU origins, including exempt suppliers; it is not the share of Serbian exports covered by CBAM. Serbia’s Ministry of Finance estimates that more than 12% of the country’s exports to the EU fall within the mechanism’s scope.
Serbia’s exposure spans metals and electricity
In the 2026 baseline, iron and steel accounted for 89.1 million euros of Serbia’s estimated exposure, aluminium for 19.5 million euros and electricity for 21.8 million euros. Cement and fertilisers made up the remainder. The assessment identifies steel producers as carrying the largest estimated cost, while electricity is also an important part of Serbia’s trade with the EU.
Trade composition figures based on 2024 exports give another measure of the covered activity. Steel represented 4.5 percentage points of Serbian exports to the EU, aluminium 2.0 percentage points and electricity 4.7 percentage points. Together, these categories produced an approximately 11.7% CBAM-related export share, with metals accounting for roughly 56% of that covered share.
The Serbian export shares and EU import values refer to different years and denominators, so they are not interchangeable annual rankings. A single approach would also overlook the differences between a coated-steel coil destined for a processor and a megawatt-hour of electricity entering Hungary’s power system.
Plant emissions and product codes determine steel costs
For covered steel items, the CBAM charge is not a simple carbon surcharge on invoice value. It depends on a plant’s direct process emissions, its verified production route, eligible input materials and the EU free-allocation adjustment. Importers may use regulatory default values when actual emissions data are unavailable.
Serbia’s Ministry of Finance warned that default factors may exceed actual domestic emissions in some cases, potentially penalising lower-emission Serbian installations that cannot substantiate their performance. The immediate policy priorities identified for Serbia are to establish a credible plant-level steel emissions baseline and map mill products accurately to EU customs codes.
The initial 2026 emissions scope for covered aluminium products focuses on direct emissions. Producers may still face commercial pressure from customers to disclose electricity sources and indirect footprints for their decarbonisation strategies. A buyer’s preference for low-carbon electricity can go beyond emissions included in the legal CBAM certificate calculation, so the two should not be conflated in pricing.
Serbian producers compete with suppliers from China, Türkiye and India, as well as with lower-carbon plants inside the EU. Their ability to retain customers depends on actual emissions, data assurance and product economics for the relevant CN8 code, rather than the EU-wide metals share alone. Serbia’s priorities also include treating electricity trade separately from metals because a one-size-fits-all approach does not account for the different compliance rules.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer